Noise : a flaw in human judgment
(Book)

Includes bibliographical references (pages [397]-436) and index (pages [437]-450).

Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.

"A revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias; Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients, or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants, or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that one doctor, judge, or interviewer makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economics forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can do about it"--Publisher's description.

Funded by PAL Cooperative.